Lewis Hamilton vs Nico Rosberg ahead of Mexican Grand Prix

The 2016 F1 championship heats up - Lewis Hamilton won the US Grand Prix and reduced the championship gap to 26 points with three more races to go: Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi.

Hamilton controlled the USA weekend to perfection: got pole position, led the race from the first corner, never looked back and won the race by 4.520 seconds ahead of Nico Rosberg.

2016 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix Race Results

i.e. Hamilton always enjoyed racing in the Circuit of the Americas. He has won that race in 2012, 2014, 2015, so it is no surprise that he won this round. Whereas Nico Rosberg never won the USGP - Second place his best result in 2014, 2015 and now 2016 as well.

On the other hand, Nico Rosberg won 4 of the last 5 rounds (before the F1 USGP): Belgium, Italy, Singapore and Japan - showing his appetite and determination to conquer first F1 title. The Malaysian Grand Prix went to Red Bull Daniel Ricciardo; that was the race that Hamilton Did Not Finished (DNF) due to a Mercedes engine failure.

Overall 2 unfinished races for Hamilton while only 1 for Rosberg. Plus the fact that Hamilton F1 campaign has been plagued with car technical issues that has not (yet) affected his Mercedes teammate. The gap now is only 26 points:

2016 F1 Championship

RosbergMercedes AMG Petronas F1331
HamiltonMercedes AMG Petronas F1305
RicciardoRed Bull Racing227
VettelScuderia Ferrari177
RaikkonenScuderia Ferrari170
VerstappenRed Bull Racing165
Go to 2016 Full F1 Standings

Do the racing stats favor Hamilton or Rosberg? Based on the comparison here:

2016 F1 Comparison: Hamilton versus Rosberg

Rosberg won 9 races versus Hamilton 7, lowest finished position for both of them is 7th (Hamilton in China, Rosberg in Monaco) and based on the stats Hamilton has most chances to be in the podium 77.78% vs. Rosberg 72.22%. Race performance goes to Hamilton with 123.13%: the British driver has this ability to overcome qualifying issues and still finish in the podium whereas Rosberg has not faced this yet (starting at the back of the grid).

The Mexican Grand Prix represents a golden opportunity for Rosberg - this is a new circuit added only in 2015, a race that the German won from start to end. BTW: if we look at Rosberg 2015 campaign - he won the last 3 races (Mexico, Brazil, Abu Dhabi) - Can he repeat the same for 2016?

Lewis Hamilton never won in Brazil in the last five years, and the last 2 races in Brazil (2014 and 2015) where won by Rosberg. Abu Dhabi @ Yas Marina has more balanced results with 4 different winners in the last 4 years including both Mercedes drivers (Rosberg in 2015, Hamilton in 2014)

Biggest challenge for both Mercedes drivers is to finish the Mexican race, a DNF for Rosberg will mean that they go to the last 2 races on equal terms - that only of course if Hamilton manages to win in Mexico (25 points). A DNF for Hamilton means the title goes to (most probably) to Rosberg - as the points gap will increase but with 2 more races to go.

If Rosberg wins Mexico (25 points) and Hamilton finishes second (18 points); the points gap will increase by +7 points to 33 - that will still give Hamilton a very small hope for the Formula One title depending on Brazil and Abu Dhabi race results.


We'll leave further analysis for after the Mexican Grand Prix this coming weekend!

Posted on October 27, 2016

What do you think?

    • PhilippeMarcher wrote on November 13, 2016:
    • Hi. Nice site you have. There is an error in your data. Magnussen qualified before Palmer in Europe GP in F1 in 2016. You have it vice versa in your data. Just check Formula1.com.
    • Reply
    • GrandPrixRankings wrote on November 13, 2016:
    • Hi, Thanks for pointing that out. We have corrected our data and statistic.
    • Reply

Your Name:

Your Email Address (will not be published):

Enter your comments in the box below:
(Use letters, numbers and symbols . , : ? ! ( ) up to 2,000 characters max)